The AI arms race

Seen as a strategic technology by governments across the world, AI has taken centre stage on the national agendas of the US and China. In 2017, China laid out a three-step roadmap to become the world leader in AI by 2030, with the aim of making the industry worth the equivalent of $148bn.

Meanwhile, last year, President Trump launched his own national AI strategy – the American AI Initiative – which orders funds, programmes and data to be directed towards the research and commercialisation of AI.

The importance of government involvement is clear (even if that involvement is to actually restrict public sector meddling); US companies have raised 56% of all global AI investment since 2015, followed by China.

Europe, meanwhile, is falling behind. Although it has no shortage of talent, it continues to trail its competitors. If it does not find its feet fast, Europe risks losing out on the social and economic value of AI.

What is holding Europe back?

Europe is a strong contender in this race as it boasts a strong ecosystem of innovative tech entrepreneurs. The continent is home to approximately 25% of the world’s AI start-ups, largely in line with its size in the world economy. However, its early-stage investment in the technology is well behind that of its competitors.

As the EU tries to regulate innovation on a bloc-wide basis, it risks stifling the future creation and deployment of innovative new toolsets. In April 2019, the European Commission announced a pilot of ethical AI guidelines. These offer a loose framework for the development and use of AI, proposing a new set of standards to be followed. The intentions behind such proposals are good, yet somewhat counterproductive.

AI remains a vast ocean of uncharted waters and more resources must be devoted to R&D, which will push the digital frontiers. Researchers in this field must not be burdened by excessive red tape; introducing unnecessary hurdles and ever-changing obligations will only impede their progress.

A European Commission white paper recommends a risk-based approach to ensure regulatory intervention is proportionate – however, this would only serve to deter or delay investment if AI products and services fall under the loose definition of being too ‘high risk’.

That is not to suggest that we do not need checks and balances; it is important that AI toolsets are developed ethically and sustainably. The key lies in finding the right balance between unleashing the potential of AI and making sure that the technology does not threaten citizen’s rights.

What’s at stake?

Why does it matter who comes out on top in this battle? In truth, there is much at stake. Not only does AI have the potential to deliver huge economic benefits, it will also shape our society in years to come.

McKinsey estimates that, on average, AI could boost growth in European economic activity by close to 20% by 2030 – adding €2.7trn to its combined output. However, if Europe bolsters its efforts and makes strides to sufficiently catch up with the US AI frontier, a total potential boost of €3.6trn by 2030 is on the cards.

A strong economic lift is not the only benefit. As AI becomes further ingrained in our daily lives, it will drive efficiency gains across all sectors, including our labour market and public services. Failure to make Europe a key player in AI development puts governments and businesses across the continent at a disadvantage on the world stage.

AI is reinventing our job market and forging efficiency gains for professionals and companies alike. With time, less resources will be wasted on repetitive tasks that can be completed by machines, and more time will be available to focus on value-adding tasks.

Public sector organisations like the NHS are exploring how AI solutions can be used to deliver better services and power decision-making that is based on more accurate and detailed information. We must continue to build on these efforts to ensure our public services are of the highest standards.

AI is a black box of opportunity, and the victors of the global AI ‘arms race’ stand to reap the rewards of this powerful technology. Europe still has a fair shot of catching up with its competitors, but it must support innovation and curb restrictions that will scupper efforts to deploy novel AI solutions.

I hope to see governments, businesses and organisations working together to pave an effective way forward and close the gap with leaders like the US and China. If it fails to do so, it risks forever losing its competitive advantage.

Nikolas Kairinos is the CEO and founder of Fountech.ai, an umbrella company to three specialist firms: Fountech.Solutions, Fountech.Ventures and Fountech.Science. Fountech.ai is driving innovation in the AI sector, helping consumers, businesses and governments understand how this technology is making the world a better place.