Oddschecker data: Sports margins rebound in October after rough Q3
Implied industry margin rises to 3.5% as the level of Premier League winning favourites dips slightly
Bookies’ win margins returned to more normal levels in October after a rough Q3, thanks to a slight drop in the percentage of winning favourites, according to new Oddschecker data.
The Oddschecker implied industry margin rebounded to 3.5% in October after a bad run of 1.2% in September, 0.5% in August and 0.8% in July.
The harmful results in Q3 were felt across the industry, with Sky Bet for instance reporting a 5% decline in sportsbook revenues thanks to a 1.7ppt drop in margin.
However October saw a return to more ‘normal’ levels, with the number of winning favourites in the Premier League dropping from 60% in September to 55% in October.
The ‘draw’ percentage in Premier League also ticked up from 21% to 23%.
During the month a 0-0 stalemate at Anfield between Arsenal and Liverpool was one of the standout results, while Chelsea and Man United drawing at Stamford Bridge was also a big winner for the books.
The Oddschecker implied margin by nature is lower than industry averages as Oddschecker punters are generally betting singles rather than accumulators, betting at best price, and are likelier to be price sensitive.
Barclays analyst Patrick Coffey said the industry would be hoping for the ‘more normal’ level of margin seen in October to continue through Q4, with a tough comparative period coming up.