Eilers predicts tough Q2 for Amaya
PokerStars and Full Tilt on track to post double-digit decline in core poker business, but casino revenues predicted to rise 75% sequentially
Amaya Gaming could be facing a double-digit Q2 revenue decline in its core poker business, according to a market report issued by Eilers Research.
Eilers said its latest information suggested Q2 2015 poker revenues from PokerStars and Full Tilt were down between 5% and 10% quarter-on-quarter, compared with its earlier estimate of a 1% decline.
The report noted that cash game traffic was down “double-digits” sequentially, while total tournament prize pools excluding majors fell an estimated 10% quarter-on-quarter.
Eilers said the only upside was the performance of Spin & Gos which launched earlier in the year and had “another strong quarter” and should help mitigate some of the decline from cash games and tournaments.
Amaya’s move into online casino and sportsbook, however, is predicted to have paid dividends, with Eilers projecting revenues of CA$42m (£21.5m) in Q2.
The report estimated casino revenues were up 75% sequentially to $35m (£18m), while the limited roll out of sportsbook in some markets contributed a “modest” $7m (£3.5m) during the period,
However, Eilers noted that it had yet to find a “reliable method” to track casino and sportsbook activity.
Eilers predicted total revenues would reach $357.7m (£183m) during the quarter, up 5% sequentially but leading to a slight dip in adjusted EBITDA at $139.8m (£72m).
The also report highlighted a number of positives for Amaya/PokerStars moving forwards, including the operator’s plan to be “first in line” for a licence in Portugal, which Eilers said was “arguably one of PokerStars’ top 10 markets”.